中广核矿业(1164.HK)：看好贸易修复及价格弹性兑现

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a production of 2,699.0tU of natural uranium in 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 2%, while international trade prices for natural uranium are expected to recover, leading to improved profitability in 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Production and Trade Performance - In Q4 2025, the company produced 702.5tU of natural uranium and received 1,592tU at a price of $76.26/lbs, while delivering 2,117tU at $79.90/lbs [1] - The annual production of 2,699.0tU was achieved at an average receiving price of $73.95/lbs and an average delivery price of $73.92/lbs, indicating a balanced pricing structure [1][2] - The company expects production to increase in 2026 and 2027, with projected production of 2,935tU and 3,300tU respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and 12% [2] Group 2: Price Recovery and Profitability - The trade delivery prices for natural uranium showed a significant recovery throughout 2025, with prices increasing from $56.44/lbs in Q1 to $79.90/lbs in Q4 [2] - The overall average receiving and delivery prices for the year were similar, which is expected to support profit recovery in the international trade business [2] - The company is positioned as one of the most elastic natural uranium producers in terms of performance against spot prices, with 70% of the pricing mechanism in the sales framework for 2026-2028 linked to spot prices [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments and Future Outlook - The U.S. has classified natural uranium as a critical mineral under Section 232, which may lead to an accelerated inventory replenishment cycle [3] - The U.S. government's actions to ensure sufficient natural uranium supply are expected to tighten supply and demand dynamics, potentially driving prices higher [3] - The company's net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down by 34% to HKD 231 million, while projections for 2026 and 2027 have been revised upwards to HKD 1.039 billion and HKD 1.363 billion respectively [3]