ZGXT(SZ:000831) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-17 12:40Core Viewpoint - The recent 180-day ultimatum issued by the U.S. regarding rare earth supply chains highlights the ongoing geopolitical struggle, revealing America's dependency on China and its attempts to mitigate this reliance through pressure tactics [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Dependency - The U.S. imported approximately 400 tons of rare earth metals in 2023, with 70% of these imports coming from China between 2020 and 2023 [7]. - The U.S. is entirely dependent on imports for 12 critical minerals and has over 50% reliance on imports for 29 minerals, indicating significant supply chain vulnerabilities [7]. - In contrast, China holds 4.4 million tons of rare earth reserves, accounting for 36.67% of global reserves, and has developed a complete industrial chain from mining to processing [9]. Group 2: China's Dominance in Rare Earth Processing - China produced over 60% of the world's rare earth minerals in 2023 and controls 92% of the global rare earth processing industry [9]. - This dominance is attributed to decades of technological accumulation and large-scale production, creating a gap that the U.S. struggles to bridge, as U.S. rare earth reserves only account for 2% of the global total [9]. Group 3: U.S. Strategic Moves and Challenges - The U.S. has attempted to establish alternative supply chains, including a 2025 agreement with Australia, but experts suggest that building a substitute supply chain will take at least 10 years [11]. - The U.S. is also trying to rally allies like Ukraine and Russia and has initiated a "Critical Minerals Action Plan" with G7 nations, but domestic production costs remain significantly higher than those in China [13]. - The ultimatum is seen as an escalation of pressure due to previous failures in establishing a reliable supply chain, with plans to impose a "price floor" that could increase manufacturing costs for allies [13][15]. Group 4: Implications for Global Supply Chains - The proposed "price floor" could lead to increased manufacturing costs, hindering economic recovery for allied nations, with significant differences in positions among countries like the EU and India [15]. - U.S. domestic industries, including automotive and defense, heavily rely on Chinese rare earth products, and the imposition of tariffs could lead to price volatility that negatively impacts these sectors [17]. - The ultimatum is perceived as a political maneuver ahead of midterm elections, with the underlying complexities of the global rare earth supply chain suggesting that administrative orders alone cannot easily reshape established market dynamics [19][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Historical attempts by the U.S. to decouple from China in sectors like semiconductors and energy have yielded limited success due to high replacement costs, indicating that the rare earth sector may face similar challenges [21]. - The stability of the rare earth supply chain is crucial for global industrial collaboration, and unilateral sanctions or "small circle" operations could ultimately harm all parties involved, exacerbating U.S. strategic anxieties [23].