中加经贸关系缓和，菜系将迎来哪些变化？

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions between China and Canada have led to specific arrangements to address trade issues in sectors such as electric vehicles, steel, aluminum, canola seeds, and agricultural products, with China planning to adjust anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds and certain agricultural products [1] Group 1: Trade Relations - The negotiations have resulted in a potential resumption of Canadian canola seeds and meal imports into China starting in March [2] - Current canola meal inventory in China is approximately 470,000 tons, with 150,000 to 200,000 tons expected to be from Canadian imports in 2025, currently held in bonded warehouses [2] - Adjustments to anti-dumping measures could lead to a significant influx of canola meal into the domestic market, impacting the local spot market basis [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The theoretical profit margin for importing Canadian canola seeds remains around 300 CNY per ton, considering a 15% import tariff and 9% VAT, although this may change with fluctuations in international prices [2] - The rebound in ICE canola seed prices suggests that the CNF quotes for Canadian canola seeds may rise, potentially narrowing profit margins [2] - The domestic oilseed market may experience tight supply conditions until tariff adjustments are made post-March [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Forecasts - The international canola meal market is expected to face supply pressures as trade resumes, while Canadian canola oil prices are supported by the U.S. market [3] - Domestic canola meal prices are nearing corn prices, indicating potential demand improvements if prices decline further [3] - The price trends for domestic canola oil contracts will depend on the processing of Australian canola seeds, with current high prices for Russian and Dubai canola oil providing some support [3]