TBEA(SH:600089) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-18 10:42Core Insights - The global power sector is experiencing a "equipment scramble," with countries like Germany and the U.S. facing significant supply shortages of transformers, leading to project delays and emergency measures [1][3] - The root cause of the supply crisis lies in aging infrastructure and supply chain bottlenecks, with 70% of U.S. transformers over 25 years old and European countries struggling to meet renewable energy integration demands [3] - China has emerged as a dominant supplier in the transformer market, leveraging its complete industrial chain and technological advancements, with some companies reporting order backlogs of up to three years [1][5] Group 1: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The aging infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe has reached a critical point, with frequent failures increasing the risk of grid outages [3] - The global production capacity for core transformer materials is concentrated in a few companies, with local production in Europe and the U.S. meeting only 30% of demand [3] - Geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated logistics delays, further extending delivery times for transformers [3] Group 2: China's Manufacturing Strength - China is the only country capable of mass-producing 0.18mm ultra-thin oriented silicon steel, which has a loss rate 15% lower than international standards, contributing to high-efficiency transformers [5] - The complete industrial chain in China, from raw material processing to assembly, allows for production cycles that are over 50% shorter than those in Europe and the U.S. [5][8] - Chinese companies have developed smart transformers that can adapt to the fluctuating loads of wind and solar power, with response speeds three times faster than traditional models [6] Group 3: Global Market Position and Future Outlook - China's transformer exports are projected to grow by 28% year-on-year by 2025, with the EU and the U.S. as the largest markets [8] - The resilience of China's industrial chain highlights the weaknesses in Western manufacturing, which struggles with capacity expansion due to industrial hollowing [8] - The current demand for transformers reflects not only a temporary supply-demand imbalance but also the strength of China's industrial system and technological innovation [9]