扩张成本叠加节庆依赖问题显现，元祖股份预计2025年净利“腰斩”

Core Viewpoint - Yuan Zu Co., a well-established baking company, anticipates a 52% to 43% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to high fixed costs associated with new store openings and reliance on seasonal gifting scenarios [1][3][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of between 119 million to 143 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 130 million to 106 million yuan compared to the previous year [3]. - Since reaching a peak net profit of 339 million yuan in 2021, the company's net profit has been on a downward trend, with a 21.62% decline in 2022 and a dual drop in revenue and net profit in 2024 [3][6]. - The third quarter has historically been a crucial period for the company, contributing approximately 89%, 92%, and 88% of the annual net profit from 2022 to 2024, but is expected to see a significant decline in 2025 due to the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [6][7]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - Yuan Zu Co. is actively expanding into southern markets, having successfully opened new stores in locations such as Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, Shenzhen, and Quanzhou, with a net increase of over 20 stores nationwide in 2025 compared to 2024 [3][4]. - The company is focusing on product innovation, launching new flavors and themed products to attract consumers, while also optimizing its store network and enhancing operational quality [4][5]. Group 3: Dependency on Seasonal Gifting - The company's business model heavily relies on seasonal gifting, particularly during festivals, which creates cyclical performance issues [6][7]. - To mitigate this dependency, experts suggest that Yuan Zu Co. should expand into non-gifting consumption scenarios and develop daily products that cater to regular consumer needs, thereby creating a balanced profit structure [7].