存周期性隐患 元祖股份预计净利“腰斩”

Core Viewpoint - Yuan Zu Co., a well-established baking company, anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year decrease of 52% to 43% due to high fixed costs associated with new store openings and reliance on seasonal gifting scenarios [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 119 million to 143 million yuan, marking a decline from the peak of 339 million yuan in 2021 [2]. - The company experienced a 21.62% year-on-year decline in net profit in 2022, and for 2024, it faced its first revenue and net profit drop since its listing in 2016 [2]. - The third quarter, traditionally a strong period due to the Mid-Autumn Festival, is expected to see a significant drop in net profit, with a projected decrease of 41.09% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - Yuan Zu Co. is actively expanding into southern markets, having successfully opened new stores in locations such as Shanghai Hongqiao Airport, Shenzhen, and Quanzhou, with a total increase of over 20 stores nationwide in 2025 [2][3]. - The company is focusing on product innovation, introducing new flavors and themed products to attract consumers during festive seasons [3]. Group 3: Dependency on Seasonal Gifting - The company's business model heavily relies on seasonal gifting, particularly during major festivals, which creates a cyclical nature in its revenue [4]. - The third quarter's net profit has historically accounted for a significant portion of the annual profit, with figures around 89%, 92%, and 88% from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - Experts suggest that the core issue behind the profit decline is the over-reliance on a single gifting model, necessitating a shift towards more diverse consumption scenarios [4][6]. Group 4: Product and Revenue Structure - The revenue from Chinese and Western-style pastry gift boxes has consistently accounted for over 50% of the company's income [5]. - In 2023, the company set a strategic goal to become the leading cake brand, aiming to increase the proportion of cake business while reducing reliance on seasonal products [5]. - Despite this strategic shift, cake business revenue has also seen a significant decline, with a reported drop of 17.73% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [5].