Tesla(US:TSLA) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-18 15:17Group 1: Tesla's Core Drivers - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has entered the "end-to-end large model" era, utilizing a BEV+Transformer architecture for 3D environmental perception, significantly enhancing decision-making real-time capabilities [2] - The FSD chip has been upgraded from HW3.0 with 144 TOPS to HW4.0 with 700 TOPS, with plans for the AI5 chip to increase performance tenfold, supporting real-time inference needs [2] - In the Chinese market, Model Y sales reached 65,874 units in December 2025, a 6.5% year-on-year increase, maintaining its position as the top-selling new energy SUV [2] Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - In Q4 2025, Tesla's revenue was $25.707 billion, a 2.15% year-on-year increase, while net profit fell 70.81% to $2.314 billion due to cost pressures and increased competition [2] - Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio is 15 times, which is a 20% discount compared to the global industry average of 18 times, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2] Group 3: Market Context and Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index for January 2026 is at 54.0, showing a slight month-on-month increase but remaining low year-on-year, with long-term inflation expectations rising to 3.4% [5][6] - Following three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points from September to December 2025, the Federal Reserve paused rate hikes in early 2026, leading to a reassessment of interest rate paths by the market [6] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Global electric vehicle market growth is expected to slow to 13% in 2026, down from 22% in 2025, due to policy rollbacks and rising cost pressures [8] - Tesla faces competition from BYD, which is projected to surpass Tesla in pure electric vehicle sales in 2025, although Tesla retains advantages in the high-end market and brand influence [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges such as declining net profits and delivery delays for the Cybertruck, Tesla's long-term growth potential is supported by ongoing innovations in autonomous driving and battery technology [10] - Structural opportunities remain in the high-end market and emerging markets, with Tesla expected to leverage its technological premium and global presence to maintain its leading position [10]