3nm产能告急，台积电大客户被迫分流，三星、英特尔机会来了？

Core Viewpoint - The demand for chips is surging due to the AI wave, leading TSMC to face capacity constraints until 2027, prompting major clients like Apple and Nvidia to consider shifting some orders to Samsung and Intel [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity and Capital Expenditure - TSMC is experiencing a "happy trouble" as its 3nm process capacity is extremely tight, with orders booked through 2026 and into 2027, necessitating a significant increase in capital expenditure plans [1]. - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, exceeding Deutsche Bank's expectation of $50 billion and market consensus of $46 billion [1][3]. - The current situation reflects a severe shortage in core wafer manufacturing capacity, particularly for the 3nm process, rather than just CoWoS packaging capacity [1][3]. Group 2: Market Share and Client Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance is causing a direct market spillover effect, with TSMC's market share in advanced process foundry expected to decline from 95% to 90% as clients seek alternative capacity [2]. - Major clients including Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are left with no choice but to explore alternative suppliers due to the extreme capacity constraints [2][5]. Group 3: Client Shifts and Competitive Landscape - TSMC is delaying new 3nm development projects and encouraging clients to shift their product plans towards 2nm GAA processes for 2027/28 [5]. - Samsung's Taylor factory is likely to be the preferred alternative for clients seeking to diversify their supply sources, with Qualcomm and AMD being the most likely to consider Samsung [5]. - Apple and Broadcom are reportedly looking into Intel as an alternative, although Intel still has significant work to do despite its potential with the 14A process [5]. Group 4: Long-term Growth and Profitability - Despite short-term capacity challenges, the long-term growth potential driven by AI is highly certain, with TSMC raising its expected CAGR for AI-related growth from the mid-40s to the mid-to-high 50s for 2024-2029 [6]. - TSMC's long-term overall growth forecast has been adjusted to a 25% CAGR, with long-term gross margin targets raised to 56% [6][7]. - The focus remains on TSMC's core profitability, despite potential margin dilution from overseas expansion and challenges related to talent and infrastructure [6][7]. Group 5: Valuation Adjustments - Deutsche Bank has raised TSMC's target price by 10% to NT$2,200, reflecting a 20x P/E ratio based on expected EPS for 2027, consistent with industry peers [9]. - This valuation indicates TSMC's solid position and strong growth rate until 2028, although potential risks such as geopolitical tensions and competition from Intel are noted [9].