SCSF(SH:600779) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-01-19 12:20Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 392 million yuan in 2025, a dramatic decline of 71% compared to 1.341 billion yuan in 2024, with revenue dropping from 5.217 billion yuan to 3.038 billion yuan, a decrease of 42% [1][2] - The non-recurring net profit is also projected to be 381 million yuan, reflecting a 71% decline, indicating that the performance drop is due to core business challenges rather than one-off losses [2] Industry Context - The company attributes its performance decline to a deep adjustment in the liquor industry, influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry adjustments, and policy changes, with traditional business dining scenarios recovering slowly and high inventory levels persisting [2][3] - The high inventory levels suggest significant pressure on channels, as distributors face excess stock, which limits the company's ability to ship products, explaining why revenue decline (42%) is greater than net profit decline (71%) due to the dual pressure on gross margins and expense ratios [2] Inventory and Channel Management - The company has implemented a series of inventory control measures, including moderating shipment pace, optimizing inventory structure, and ensuring channel financial safety, prioritizing channel health [3] - While these measures may improve channel inventory quality and stabilize pricing, there are concerns about whether they can restore channel confidence during an industry downturn [3][4] Strategic Investments - Despite the significant drop in performance, the company emphasizes maintaining investments in brand building, terminal expansion, product innovation, and organizational capabilities while also optimizing expense efficiency [5] - The rising expense ratio is inevitable given the 42% revenue decline, suggesting that the effectiveness of the company's expense optimization efforts may be limited [5] Future Outlook - The company stresses the importance of laying a healthy foundation for future growth, but investors are concerned about the timeline for recovery [6] - Key uncertainties include when the industry cycle will bottom out, how long it will take to digest channel inventory, the stability of the pricing system, and the challenges of regaining lost market share [6][7][8] Investor Considerations - Investors should monitor the company's first-quarter performance, channel inventory data, pricing stability, changes in competitive dynamics, and trends in expense ratios to gauge the effectiveness of the company's adjustments [9]