Tesla(US:TSLA) Xin Jing Bao·2026-01-19 13:20Core Viewpoint - Tesla is signaling the potential launch of "affordable" versions of its Model 3 and Model Y in the Chinese market, with prices expected to drop below 200,000 RMB due to increased localization and cost reductions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Pricing - The standard version of Model Y has appeared on Tesla's Chinese website, indicating its imminent entry into the market [1]. - The "Model 3 Standard Range Upgrade" has been listed in the tax exemption directory, suggesting a strategy to penetrate the mainstream market [1]. - The current cheapest model in China is the Model 3 rear-wheel drive version, priced at 235,500 RMB, while the mainstream market segment (150,000-200,000 RMB) accounts for over 40% of sales [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Sales Performance - In 2025, Tesla's global vehicle deliveries are projected to be 1.636 million, a decline of 8.6% year-on-year, marking the first time it loses its title as the global leader in electric vehicle sales [1]. - In China, Tesla sold 625,700 electric vehicles in 2025, a decrease of 4.8% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 3: Cost Management and Localization - Tesla's Shanghai factory is crucial for balancing costs, contributing to over 52% of global deliveries and achieving over 95% localization of parts by 2025 [4]. - The standard version of Model 3 has seen a cost reduction of approximately $5,500 through the removal of over 20 non-core features, potentially allowing for a price drop to around 200,000 RMB in China [2][3]. Group 4: Challenges and Consumer Expectations - The introduction of lower-cost models faces challenges, particularly regarding reduced features and competition from local brands that may offer more features at similar price points [5]. - Consumer expectations in China for feature-rich vehicles are higher than in overseas markets, which may lead to backlash against Tesla's cost-cutting measures [5][6]. - Tesla's recent shift to a subscription model for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) service may not align with Chinese consumer habits, further complicating its market strategy [6].