纯碱业务拖累业绩 三友化工2025年净利润预降约82%

Core Viewpoint - Sanyou Chemical (三友化工) is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for 2025, primarily due to the imbalance in supply and demand in the soda ash market, leading to price drops and overall performance deterioration [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Sanyou Chemical anticipates a net profit of approximately 91 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of about 408 million yuan compared to the previous year's profit of 499 million yuan, representing an 82% decline year-on-year [1]. - The company's net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be around 4 million yuan, reflecting a 99% year-on-year decrease [2]. Group 2: Soda Ash Market Analysis - The soda ash sector, which is crucial for Sanyou Chemical, is facing significant profit reductions due to oversupply, insufficient effective demand, and limited declines in raw material prices [2]. - The average market price of soda ash is expected to drop from 1,528 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2025 to 1,250 yuan per ton by the end of the year, marking an 18.19% decrease over the year [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Analysts indicate that the soda ash market is under pressure from high supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, with only three notable price increases throughout 2025 [3]. - The introduction of new production capacities in 2024-2025, coupled with slowing demand growth, is exacerbating the oversupply situation, pushing prices to near five-year lows [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Predictions for 2026 suggest that soda ash prices may continue to decline, with an expected production increase of about 3.3% for the year [4]. - The overall supply-demand imbalance is likely to persist, with industry losses potentially accelerating the exit of high-cost production capacities, while low-cost production methods may gain market share [5].