COL(SZ:300364) 3 6 Ke·2026-01-20 00:23Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongwen Online, is facing significant financial challenges as it anticipates a substantial increase in net losses for 2025, primarily driven by its overseas short drama business, despite initial revenue growth in previous quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Zhongwen Online expects a net loss of 5.8 billion to 7 billion yuan for 2025, with limited impact from non-recurring gains [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue grew by 25.12% to 1.011 billion yuan, but the net loss expanded to 5.2 billion yuan, indicating a concerning trend of rising losses despite increasing revenue [1][2]. - The sales expenses reached 660 million yuan in the first three quarters, nearly doubling year-on-year, with Q3 sales expenses alone accounting for approximately 87% of that quarter's revenue [2]. Strategic Focus - The company has shifted its strategic focus multiple times over the years, from gaming and the metaverse to AI-generated content and overseas short dramas, but has struggled to achieve consistent profitability [3]. - Zhongwen Online's cumulative net losses from 2015 to 2024 exceeded 2.3 billion yuan, with projections indicating that total losses could approach 3 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [3]. Market Position and Potential - The overseas short drama market is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential compared to the domestic market, and is expected to be several times larger in the long term [5]. - The company holds a competitive position with its combination of content IP, production capabilities, and platform access, which theoretically enhances its long-term value [5]. Future Outlook - Key indicators for future success include whether customer acquisition costs peak, the sustainability of customer lifetime value (LTV), and the ability of AI tools to convert into cost advantages rather than additional expenses [5]. - The company plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to support its global strategy, which may help extend its runway and leverage additional resources [5][6]. - The upcoming period is critical for Zhongwen Online to demonstrate a clear path to profitability in its overseas short drama business, as market patience is limited [6].