高盛维持A股“慢牛”预判

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in 2026, with healthy market conditions compared to the "crazy bull" of 2015, and any signs of overheating will prompt quick policy adjustments [2][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that over 3 trillion RMB of new domestic capital will flow into the stock market in 2026, including approximately 2 trillion from individual investors and over 1 trillion from institutional funds [2][5] - The net buying of southbound funds is expected to reach 200 billion USD (approximately 1.4 trillion RMB) in 2026, setting a new historical high [2][5] Group 2 - Recent market signals indicate a cooling trend, with the trading volume dropping below 3 trillion RMB after reaching 3.94 trillion RMB on January 14 [3][4] - The increase in financing margin ratios by exchanges is seen as a measure to cool the margin trading market, while some previously popular sectors are showing signs of risk [4] - Investor sentiment indicators for individual investors are not showing excessive confidence compared to previous high-confidence periods, suggesting a more controlled risk environment [4][5] Group 3 - The driving force behind the market's rise is shifting from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth, with expected profit growth rates accelerating from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027 [5][7] - The total amount of dividends and buybacks is projected to approach 570 billion USD (approximately 4 trillion RMB), while IPO fundraising is expected to exceed 100 billion USD (approximately 700 billion RMB), marking an 80% year-on-year increase [5][6] - There is a notable increase in interest from overseas investors in the Chinese market, although large-scale buying has not yet materialized [5][6] Group 4 - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that China's GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated due to base effects [7][8] - The export sector is expected to remain a core driver of economic growth, with a projected annual growth rate of 5% to 6% in export volume over the next few years [2][7] - Consumer spending is showing structural differentiation, with service consumption expected to outpace goods consumption, while government spending is anticipated to provide support as debt pressures ease [7][8]