GEELY AUTO(HK:00175) Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang·2026-01-20 09:02Core Insights - Recent agreements between China and the EU, as well as Canada, regarding electric vehicle exports have raised questions about the potential for Chinese cars to enter the U.S. market [2] - UBS report analyzes the challenges Chinese automakers face in entering the U.S. market, highlighting significant barriers [3][7] Group 1: Challenges in Entering the U.S. Market - The first major challenge is tariffs, with current tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles potentially rising from 25% to 100%, making it difficult for Chinese cars to compete on cost [3][5] - The second challenge involves technical certification and market access, as Chinese vehicles must meet U.S. safety standards, which differ significantly from European standards [3] - Consumer recognition and cultural differences present a third challenge, as American consumers have distinct preferences for larger vehicles like SUVs and trucks, which differ from Chinese consumer habits [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategic Considerations - The fourth challenge is related to market structure and channel development, as U.S. laws require vehicles to be sold through authorized dealers, complicating entry for Chinese manufacturers [4] - Establishing a production base in the U.S. could alleviate tariff issues, as certain tariffs on materials could be waived, providing a potential pathway for Chinese automakers [5] - The report indicates that even if Chinese automakers enter the market, they may struggle to compete with established U.S. brands in the lucrative truck and SUV segments, which are less likely to adopt electric technologies [7] Group 3: Potential for Chinese Automakers - Geely is positioned to potentially enter the U.S. market within the next 24 to 36 months, with brands like Zeekr and Lynk & Co. seen as suitable for American consumers [6] - The possibility of utilizing Volvo's South Carolina plant for local production could enhance Geely's market entry strategy [6] - The UBS report suggests that while Chinese automakers may face significant hurdles, their entry into the U.S. market is likely a matter of time, with some industry leaders acknowledging this potential [7] Group 4: Implications of Trade Agreements - Canada's recent allowance for Chinese electric vehicles may prompt scrutiny from the U.S. as trade negotiations evolve, potentially complicating market entry for Chinese brands [8] - Mexico's response to U.S. pressure to increase tariffs on Chinese goods indicates a challenging environment for Chinese exports in North America [9] - The report describes the U.S.-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA) as a "backdoor" that could lead to more significant barriers for Chinese automakers, emphasizing the importance of supplier relationships in the U.S. market [10]