Sublime China Information (SZ:301299) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2026-01-20 09:18Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China will see its first increase in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 85 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel, effective from 24:00 tonight [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The price adjustment is triggered by a shift in the crude oil price change rate from negative to positive during the current pricing cycle [1]. - After the adjustment, the cost for filling a 50-liter tank in a small private car will increase by approximately 3.5 yuan, and for a small car running 2,000 kilometers per month with an 8-liter fuel consumption per 100 kilometers, the total fuel cost will rise by 5 yuan before the next price adjustment window [1]. - For heavy trucks running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by around 124 yuan before the next adjustment [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have provided support for oil prices, leading to a cumulative increase of over 10% in crude oil prices over five days, but subsequent easing signals from the U.S. have led to a price decline [3]. - Analysts expect ongoing geopolitical uncertainties to continue affecting international oil prices, while macroeconomic pressures and industry oversupply may suppress upward momentum, resulting in a volatile market [3]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a certain demand for gasoline, which may support prices, but diesel consumption is expected to decline due to reduced activity in industries like mining and construction [3].