方正证券：热泵对欧出口连续增长 看好行业长期发展空间

Core Viewpoint - The heat pump industry is experiencing significant growth, with exports expected to reach 16.17 billion yuan in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [1]. Group 1: Export Growth - Heat pump exports have shown continuous growth for 20 months, with December 2025 exports amounting to 16.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [1]. - The export value of heat pump units reached 12.62 billion yuan in December, up 32.0% year-on-year, while parts exports totaled 3.55 billion yuan, down 4.6% [1]. - Europe has solidified its position as the leading market, accounting for 46.1% of global exports in December, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from November [1]. Group 2: European Market Performance - Exports to 21 European countries (excluding Russia and Ukraine) reached 5.59 billion yuan in December, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, with cumulative exports for 2025 at 55.41 billion yuan, up 30.9% [2]. - The Netherlands, France, and Spain were the top three markets in December, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.5%, 53.2%, and 127.6%, respectively [2]. - Several European countries, including Germany and Italy, have seen export figures nearly double, with December year-on-year increases of 85.8% and 93.8% [2]. Group 3: Southeast Asia and Africa Markets - ASEAN countries experienced a year-on-year export growth of 12.2% in December, with cumulative growth of 12.3% for the year [3]. - Thailand and Vietnam showed strong performance with year-on-year increases of 27.9% and 17.7%, respectively [3]. - The African market saw a slight decline in December, with exports down 1.9%, but cumulative growth for the year remained robust at 28.6%, led by Nigeria, Libya, and Kenya with increases of 112.6%, 69.8%, and 54.8% [3]. Group 4: Market Potential in Europe - In Germany, heat pump sales are projected to surpass gas boilers for the first time in 2025, although the energy retrofitting of existing buildings is progressing slowly [4]. - Over half of existing homes in Germany still rely on natural gas for heating, indicating a significant potential for heat pump adoption [4]. - The push for clean energy and carbon neutrality in Europe enhances the economic and environmental advantages of heat pumps, suggesting a broad replacement potential in the long term [4].