业绩“跳水”，水井坊被卖传闻再升温

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang, a prominent player in the Chinese liquor industry, has issued a profit warning for 2025, forecasting a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, raising concerns about its future amid ongoing discussions of a potential sale by its parent company, Diageo [2][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Water Jiufang expects a revenue of 3.038 billion yuan for 2025, a 42% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 850 million yuan, a 58.91% decline year-on-year, and a net profit of 221 million yuan, down 75.01% year-on-year [5]. - High-end liquor sales for the first three quarters reached 2.08 billion yuan, a 39.9% decrease, while mid-range liquor sales were 130 million yuan, down 33.1% [5]. Group 2: Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with cash flow issues among distributors and increased pressure on sales and channel management [5]. - Water Jiufang's aggressive marketing strategies, including bottle opening promotions, reflect the urgency to boost sales amid declining profit margins [5]. Group 3: Potential Sale Discussions - Diageo has engaged Goldman Sachs and UBS as financial advisors to evaluate its Chinese operations, particularly its 63% stake in Water Jiufang, indicating a potential sale [8][9]. - The new CEO of Diageo, Dave Lewis, known for cost-cutting measures, may increase the likelihood of Water Jiufang being sold as part of a broader strategy to optimize asset structure [9]. - Recent visits by the chairman of Chuanjiu Group to Water Jiufang's facilities have reignited speculation about a possible acquisition, although previous rumors have been denied by Water Jiufang [10].