Core Viewpoint - The management of Gu Ming (01364) anticipates a recovery in organic same-store transaction value (GMV) by 2026, with potential growth driven by new product penetration and an optimistic outlook on the franchise network [1] Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley has revised its net store opening forecasts for Gu Ming, increasing the estimates for 2025 and 2026 from 3,100 and 3,300 stores to 3,300 and 3,500 stores respectively, projecting a 26% year-on-year growth in store count by 2026 [1] - The estimated core net profit for Gu Ming in 2025 is projected to reach 2.3 billion RMB, representing a 51% year-on-year increase [1] - Revenue is expected to grow by 21% year-on-year in 2026, driven by the opening of 3,500 new stores and a slight reduction in average selling prices [1] - The net profit margin is anticipated to remain stable due to operating leverage offsetting slight gross margin pressure, with core earnings projected to reach 2.8 billion RMB in 2026 [1] Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings per share forecasts for Gu Ming for 2025 to 2027 by approximately 1%, with the target price slightly increased from 35 HKD to 36 HKD, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and continuing to list it as an industry favorite [1]
古茗再涨超3% 小摩上调公司今明两年净开店预测