中泰证券：保险预定利率研究值或已筑底确认 中期再迎“炒停售”季概率较低

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the preset interest rate for personal insurance products has likely bottomed out, with a low probability of a "stop-sale" season in the medium term. The firm remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the sector, predicting a return to a 1x PEV recovery path, supported by a cyclical logic of improving expectations and profit elasticity since December of the previous year. Group 1: Meeting Insights - On January 20, the China Insurance Industry Association held a meeting of the Personal Insurance Industry Interest Rate Research Expert Consultation Committee, which reported the current preset interest rate for ordinary personal insurance products at 1.89%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 1.90% [1] - The long-term interest rates have stabilized since the beginning of 2025, with a gradual upward trend expected in the second half of 2025. The decline in preset interest rates has been narrowing over recent quarters [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice in early 2025 to establish a mechanism linking preset interest rates to market rates, aiming to enhance the asset-liability connection and promote prudent pricing [1] Group 2: Committee's Positive Outlook - The 4Q25 meeting continued the positive tone from 3Q25, reflecting the committee's recognition of the industry's transformation and a relatively optimistic outlook for future development [2] - The committee emphasized the importance of economic resilience and vitality, as well as the need to reduce costs and increase efficiency within the industry [2] - The committee's discussions included topics such as the impact of new accounting standards, changes in international trade patterns, and insurance asset allocation, aligning with current industry hot topics [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The preset interest rate of 1.89% is only 11 basis points below the maximum preset interest rate for current ordinary personal insurance products (2.0%), which does not meet the regulatory threshold for adjustment [3] - If market interest rates remain stable, the projected preset interest rate for the end of 2026 is estimated to be 2.00%, indicating limited potential for adjustments to new product preset interest rates in the medium term [3] - The likelihood of a "stop-sale" season in 2026 is considered low, following three consecutive years of regulatory guidance to lower preset interest rate ceilings from 2023 to 2025 [3]