中泰证券：保险预定利率研究值或已筑底确认，中期再迎“炒停售”季概率较低

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that the preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has stabilized, with a low probability of a "stop-sale" season in the medium term, reaffirming the investment opportunities in the sector and the potential for a return to a 1x PEV recovery path [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Research and Trends - As of Q4 2025, the preset interest rate research value for ordinary life insurance products is 1.89%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 1.90%, indicating a year-on-year decline of 1 basis point [1]. - The long-end interest rates have shown signs of stabilization since the beginning of 2025, with a gradual upward trend established in the second half of 2025, and the margin of decline in preset interest rates has been narrowing [2]. - The preset interest rate research values have decreased by 21bps, 14bps, 9bps, and 1bps in the last three disclosures, reflecting a trend of diminishing declines [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Market Impact - The Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice in early 2025 to establish a mechanism linking preset interest rates with market rates, aiming to enhance the asset-liability connection and prudent pricing [2]. - The rebranding of the committee to the "Life Insurance Industry Interest Rate Research Expert Consultation Committee" aligns with new standards for insurance contract liability research, indicating a positive outlook on industry transformation [3]. - The committee's recent meeting emphasized the resilience and vitality of the economy, promoting cost reduction and efficiency in the industry, and confirmed the implementation of the mechanism linking preset and market interest rates [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If market interest rates remain unchanged, the preset interest rate for 2026 may not trigger the previously established adjustment window, with a projected value of 2.00% aligning with the current maximum preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products [4]. - The likelihood of a "stop-sale" season in 2026 is considered low, as the preset interest rate has not met the regulatory threshold for adjustment [4].