亚马逊开始收网：中国卖家的红利期到头了

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is proactively pressuring suppliers for discounts of up to 30% to mitigate potential tariff impacts, particularly targeting Chinese suppliers, indicating a significant shift in its operational strategy amidst ongoing trade uncertainties [1][4][5]. Group 1: Amazon's Pricing Strategy - Amazon's discount demands vary significantly, with reductions ranging from a few percentage points to as high as 30%, particularly affecting categories like electronics and home goods [4]. - The urgency of Amazon's actions is notable, as negotiations with suppliers were expedited to complete before a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, with some deadlines set as early as January 1 [4]. - The majority of the burden from these discount requests falls on Chinese suppliers, who account for over 50% of Amazon's seller base and approximately 60% of its sales [4][14]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the tariffs from the Trump era are upheld, Amazon's annual operating profit could decline by 6% to 12%, translating to a potential loss of $5 billion to $10 billion [5]. - In a low-margin e-commerce environment, Amazon's strategy to recover previously granted supplier concessions is seen as the only viable path to maintain its low-price promise while managing policy risks [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The rise of aggressive pricing strategies from competitors like Temu, TikTok Shop, and SHEIN is intensifying pressure on Amazon, prompting it to launch Amazon Haul, which offers products at significantly lower prices [10][11]. - Despite the launch of Amazon Haul, consumer adoption has been low, with only 16% of U.S. consumers using the low-price platform monthly, indicating that Amazon's pricing may still not be competitive enough [11]. Group 4: Supplier Dynamics - The pressure on Chinese sellers is exacerbated by their heavy reliance on Amazon, with nearly 70% of sellers limited to a single market, making them vulnerable to price negotiations [14]. - Amazon's recent layoffs, particularly in its seller management teams, reflect a strategic shift towards automation and AI, which may further impact the support available to suppliers [15][16]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing cost negotiations and Amazon's pricing strategies signal a broader reallocation of power within the supply chain, with potential long-term risks for smaller sellers who may struggle to survive under increased pressure [19]. - The decline in new seller registrations on Amazon, which dropped by 44% year-over-year, suggests a shrinking marketplace that could lead to reduced product diversity and user experience [19][21].