预亏超百亿，智飞生物“爆雷”了

Core Viewpoint - Zhifei Biological, a leading domestic vaccine company, has reported its worst performance forecast since its listing, with an expected net profit loss of between 10.698 billion to 13.726 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year decline of 630% to 780% [1][2]. Revenue Structure - Over 90% of Zhifei's revenue comes from agency products, with agency product revenue accounting for 98.05% and 94.61% in 2023 and 2024, respectively [6]. - The main source of agency revenue is the HPV vaccine, which is crucial for the company's performance in 2026 [6]. Market Competition - The HPV vaccine market has become increasingly competitive with the introduction of domestic vaccines, breaking the monopoly previously held by Merck [6][8]. - The price of HPV vaccines has significantly dropped, with the 2-valent HPV vaccine priced at 27.5 yuan per dose, a decrease of about 90% from over 300 yuan in 2022 [8]. Sales Decline - Zhifei's sales of the 4-valent HPV vaccine saw a dramatic decline, with a 95.49% drop in batch issuance in 2024, and a complete halt in 2025 [10]. - The company faces inventory issues, with stock levels rising to 20.246 billion yuan, a 125% increase from the previous year, leading to potential asset impairment risks [10]. New Product Development - Zhifei has four self-developed products expected to launch in 2026, including flu and rabies vaccines, but these are not classified as first-class applications [15][16]. - The competitive landscape for these products is intense, with many companies already established in the market, making it difficult for Zhifei to gain significant market share [15][19]. Financial Pressure - The company has signed a loan agreement for up to 10.2 billion yuan, indicating potential financial strain as it seeks to expand its self-developed product line [22]. - The reliance on agency products and the challenges in launching new products may continue to pressure Zhifei's financial performance in the coming years [21][22].