C&D INC.(SH:600153) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-22 09:20Core Viewpoint - The company, Jianfa Co., has experienced a significant shift in market perception due to a profit warning, indicating a potential net loss for 2025, primarily driven by pressures in its real estate and home operation businesses, despite stable performance in its supply chain operations [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jianfa Co. has maintained steady growth since its listing, with net profits of 11.259 billion yuan, 16.850 billion yuan, and an expected 5.820 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with supply chain business revenue consistently accounting for over 75% [2]. - The company's supply chain operations remain a strong profit driver, with overseas business reaching 14 billion USD in 2025, a 37% year-on-year increase [5]. - Despite the challenges, Jianfa Co. has consistently ranked in the top 20 for comprehensive strength among real estate developers, achieving 8th place in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a "high open low walk" trend, with a significant decline in development investment, down 15.9% year-on-year from January to November [3]. - Jianfa's real estate platform set a sales target of 150 billion yuan for 2025 but only achieved 122.1 billion yuan, reflecting a shortfall of nearly 30 billion yuan and a year-on-year decline of over 10 billion yuan [3]. - The performance of Jianfa's subsidiary, Lianfa Group, has deteriorated since 2021, with a net profit of -1.642 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the struggles within the real estate sector [4]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Jianfa Co. and Lianfa Group invested 6.286 billion yuan to acquire a 29.95% stake in Red Star Macalline, aiming to create a synergistic ecosystem of "real estate + home + supply chain" [5]. - The home retail sector, including Red Star Macalline, is facing demand pressures, with a 3.33% year-on-year decline in sales for large-scale building materials and home furnishing markets [5]. - The central economic work conference in 2026 emphasizes "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the real estate industry [6].