Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock has risen 37% this year, closing at $54.25 on January 21, marking a new high since January 2022. The upcoming quarterly earnings report is anticipated to focus on three core growth drivers: AI Agent-driven CPU demand, advancements in the 18A process technology, and breakthroughs in the foundry business [1]. Group 1: AI Agent and Server CPU Demand - The market views AI Agents as a key growth driver for Intel's server business, with KeyBanc reporting that Intel's server CPU capacity for 2026 is nearly sold out. HSBC predicts that demand for server CPUs driven by Agentic AI could grow by 30%-40%, significantly exceeding the market's expected growth of 4%-6% [3]. - The earnings report will focus on two key indicators: revenue growth in the Data Center and AI (DCAI) business, which Morgan Stanley expects to grow by 11.5% quarter-over-quarter, and the average selling price (ASP) of server CPUs, which has reportedly increased by 10%-15% [4][5]. Group 2: 18A Process and Panther Lake Progress - The 18A process is critical for Intel's return to process leadership, with the Panther Lake processor being the first product to utilize this technology. The earnings report will look for signals regarding DCAI revenue and ASP increases, which could validate the demand from AI Agents [4][5]. - The yield and production pace of the 18A process will directly impact Intel's gross margin recovery and cost competitiveness. Positive early orders or collaboration intentions from PC manufacturers regarding the Panther Lake processor would demonstrate the commercial viability of the 18A process [5]. Group 3: Foundry Business Developments - Intel's foundry business (IFS) is seen as a key growth curve for valuation reformation, but market skepticism remains regarding its ability to attract external customers. Reports indicate a lack of visibility in potential collaborations with major companies like Apple and NVIDIA [6]. - Any progress reported during the earnings call regarding external customer acquisition or actual orders for advanced packaging technologies would significantly boost market expectations. This will be crucial for validating Intel's transition from an IDM 2.0 strategy to a market-oriented foundry business [6].
年内已经上涨37%，明早的英特尔财报看什么？