Alcoa(US:AA) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-22 23:39Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q4 2025 earnings, with adjusted EPS and revenue exceeding market expectations, driven by rising aluminum prices and CO2 compensation benefits [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached $3.4 billion, surpassing the market consensus of $3.28 billion, and increased by 15% from the previous quarter, though slightly down from $3.5 billion year-over-year [1] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.26, significantly higher than the market estimate of $0.93 [1] - Operating cash flow improved to $537 million, up from $85 million in Q3, while free cash flow reached $294 million, compared to a negative $66 million in the previous quarter [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, the company expects aluminum production to exceed 2025 levels, with total output projected between 2.4 million and 2.6 million tons [2] - The company warned of adverse impacts in Q1, including a $30 million hit to the alumina business due to maintenance and reduced shipments, and a $70 million impact on the aluminum business from the lack of CO2 compensation and higher restart costs [2] Group 3: Cash Position - After redeeming the remaining $141 million of 5.5% preferred notes due in 2027 by the end of 2025, the company will have a cash balance of $1.6 billion [3]