林清轩(2657.HK)：以油养肤理念下的高端护肤品 抖音渠道增长提速

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully captured the high-end anti-wrinkle essence oil market through a differentiated approach using camellia flower ingredients, launching its core product in 2014 and adopting an "oil-based skincare" concept, leading to a projected revenue CAGR of 32% from 2022 to 2024 and a turnaround in net profit [1][2] Product Strategy - The company focuses on high-end positioning with its camellia flower essence oil, which has undergone five iterations since its launch, enhancing its efficacy and gradually increasing its price range, with the essence oil series accounting for 45% of revenue in the first half of 2025 [2][4] - The product line is expected to expand under the "1+4+N" strategy, incorporating creams, toners, sunscreens, and masks, while maintaining a flagship product strategy [4][5] User Demographics - The company initially targeted mature customers through offline channels but has shifted to online channels since 2020, attracting younger consumers aged 25-40, primarily from new first-tier and second-tier cities [3][4] Channel Strategy - In the first half of 2025, offline and online channels generated revenues of 3.64 billion yuan (+51.5%) and 6.88 billion yuan (+137%), respectively, with online sales accounting for 65.4% of total revenue [3][4] - The company plans to expand its offline store network primarily through direct sales, optimizing existing stores to enhance efficiency and customer retention [5][6] Growth Drivers - The company is positioned for significant growth in the essence oil market, with a projected online GMV of approximately 10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating room for improvement compared to competitors [4][6] - Future growth is expected to come from both internal product development and potential acquisitions, with a focus on enhancing brand presence and expanding product offerings [6][7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 22.1 billion yuan, 31.1 billion yuan, and 42.0 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 3.51 billion yuan, 5.70 billion yuan, and 7.71 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth rates [6][7]