ZGXT(SZ:000831) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-24 11:52Group 1 - The core message of the news is that Trump has issued an ultimatum to countries with strategic minerals, demanding they sever ties with China regarding rare earth supply chains within 180 days, or face high tariffs from the U.S. [1][3] - The announcement emphasizes supply chain diversification and national security, but it is primarily aimed at isolating China, which controls over 70% of global rare earth processing capacity [3][5] - The 180-day deadline coincides with the U.S. midterm elections, suggesting that Trump aims to leverage a tough stance against China to boost his political visibility and gain voter support [5][15] Group 2 - The U.S. is pressuring allies like Australia, Canada, and Malaysia to comply, which could force them to break long-standing agreements with China, risking significant economic losses [5][15] - The U.S. strategy involves having Australia mine rare earths, ship them to Malaysia for initial processing, and then send them to Japan for further refinement, which increases costs and delivery times [9][11] - Trump's approach includes setting price floors for rare earth products to undercut Chinese prices, which could lead to increased costs for manufacturers in Europe and Japan, ultimately affecting consumers [13][15] Group 3 - Allies are caught in a dilemma, as complying with U.S. demands would alienate China, while non-compliance risks tariffs and sanctions [15][16] - The U.S. lacks the necessary processing technology and complete supply chain for rare earths, which makes the ultimatum unrealistic, as the global supply chain is deeply integrated with China's capabilities [11][16] - The competition in the rare earth sector is fundamentally about technology and capability, with China having a significant advantage due to decades of experience [16]