巨头抢滩，HBM4倒计时

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is set to be a milestone for storage giants, with a significant focus on HBM4 technology, which is expected to drive competitive differentiation among major players like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron [1][10]. HBM4 Development and Features - SK Hynix has developed its HBM4 with 16-layer stacking and a capacity of 48GB, achieving a bandwidth exceeding 2TB/s, a notable improvement over its previous 12-layer 36GB version [3][8]. - Samsung is the only supplier to manufacture DRAM, logic chips, and 3D packaging in-house, utilizing a 1c DRAM process for HBM4, which provides a competitive edge over others [9][10]. - Micron's HBM4 is reported to exceed 2.8TB/s in bandwidth and 11Gb/s in data rate, positioning it as a leader in the industry [14]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the DRAM wafer processing capacities for the three major suppliers are projected to be: Samsung at 655,000 wafers, SK Hynix at 545,000 wafers, and Micron at 340,000 wafers [19]. - SK Hynix is expected to see a significant increase in capacity, with a strategy of parallel production of HBM3E and HBM4, anticipating over 20% growth in DRAM shipments for 2026 [19][20]. - Micron forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 40% for the global HBM market from 2025 to 2028, with the total addressable market expected to grow from $35 billion to $100 billion [20]. Global Manufacturing Footprint - SK Hynix has multiple semiconductor production bases globally, with advanced HBM and DRAM concentrated in South Korea, while mature DRAM relies on its Wuxi plant in China [21][23]. - Samsung's production facilities are strategically located in both the U.S. and South Korea, with significant investments in advanced manufacturing capabilities for HBM4 [24][25]. - Micron is expanding its manufacturing footprint with new facilities in Singapore, Japan, and the U.S., including a $100 billion investment in a large wafer fabrication complex [26][27].