国信证券：全球氯化钾供需紧张 2026年需求、价格有望超预期

Core Viewpoint - The domestic potassium fertilizer prices have increased by 50-100 yuan/ton since the beginning of the year, with current prices at 3300 yuan/ton for domestic 60% white potassium, 3400 yuan/ton for border trade 62% white potassium, and 3500 yuan/ton for port 62% white potassium. The global potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tight, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry over the next 2-3 years [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic potassium fertilizer inventory is at a low level, which supports an upward trend in spring planting potassium fertilizer prices. As of January 15, domestic potassium chloride port inventory was 2.51 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 450,000 tons [1]. - The annual potassium fertilizer "big contract" for 2025 was signed at 348 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2 USD/ton, driven by significant pressure for spring planting supply [1]. - The domestic spring planting consumption accounts for approximately 50% of the annual total, and with low inventory levels, there is potential for prices to rise unexpectedly [1]. Group 2: Global Market Dynamics - The global potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a high-price and tight balance phase, with strong demand from China, India, and Brazil, and low inventory levels contributing to significant price increases [2]. - The supply side is constrained, with no new production capacity expected in 2025, and only limited capacity additions projected for 2026-2027. The cost support for new capacities in Belarus and Canada is above 250 USD/ton FOB [2]. - The nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer markets are facing supply disruptions, leading to increased price levels, while potassium fertilizer remains a cost-effective option, with current CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia at 360-380 USD/ton [2].