AI推理刚需，NAND“周期更长更稳”！摩根大通：本轮主角是eSSD，铠侠成为首选

Core Insights - The NAND flash memory industry is entering a new super cycle driven by AI inference, moving away from its previous reliance on smartphone and PC shipments as the main growth driver [1][3] - The market is expected to see a significant increase in the Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth rate, projected to rise to 34% from the historical range of 7%-12% [3][6] - The average selling price (ASP) of NAND is predicted to increase by 40% in 2026, marking a shift where ASP becomes a positive growth driver rather than a negative one [3][24] Industry Dynamics - The NAND market is experiencing structural growth due to the transition of AI workloads from training to inference, alongside supply bottlenecks in HDDs [1][15] - The demand for enterprise SSDs (eSSD) is expected to surge, with eSSD projected to account for 48% of global NAND bit demand by 2027, surpassing smartphones and PCs [11][14] - The supply chain crisis in HDDs, exacerbated by reduced capital expenditures from manufacturers, is forcing data centers to shift towards NAND solutions [15][19] Technological Advancements - The introduction of KV Cache Offloading technology is enhancing the role of eSSD in AI inference, allowing for faster data retrieval and processing [8][9] - The report highlights the limitations faced by NAND manufacturers in scaling production due to technical challenges, leading to a predicted 3% growth in wafer output by 2026 [24][23] Market Valuation - The valuation of storage stocks is shifting from a purely cyclical perspective to one that incorporates AI growth attributes, with a 242% increase in market capitalization since January 2025 [6][35] - Companies like Kioxia are positioned as top picks due to their focus on NAND technology, while SK Hynix and Samsung are also highlighted for their competitive advantages in the market [26][27][28] Competitive Landscape - Kioxia is identified as a leading player in the NAND cycle, while SK Hynix is recognized for its long-term potential due to its successful subsidiary, Solidigm [26][27] - Samsung is expected to experience short-term gains, while Micron is adopting a differentiated strategy to compete in the eSSD market [28][29]