德意志银行邓智杰：年内黄金仍能实现正收益 但价格波动幅度将加大

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have reached a historical high of over $5100 per ounce, with an annual increase exceeding 18%, driven by rising geopolitical risks and central banks reducing dollar holdings while increasing gold purchases [1] - Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets, Deng Zhijie, noted that the interest in gold among investors has surged due to its performance and the current market conditions [1] - Deng expects that gold assets will continue to yield positive returns this year, although price volatility may increase due to speculative trading behaviors [1] Group 2 - Deng highlighted a positive outlook for the global economy, projecting a growth rate of 3% to 3.1% for the year, with global stocks expected to achieve returns of 8% to 10%, particularly in emerging markets [2] - The optimistic return forecast is attributed to relatively loose monetary policies from major economies, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with two cuts of 25 basis points expected this year [2] - The first rate cut is projected to occur after May, with a target interest rate range of approximately 3% to 3.25% for the year [2]