阿斯麦财报前夕，大摩坚定看多：Q4订单大幅增长，2027年将迎来业绩爆发之年

Core Viewpoint - ASML is expected to report strong order numbers, with a shift in market focus from 2026 to 2027, which may be a key year for the company's performance [1] Group 1: Order Expectations - Morgan Stanley predicts ASML's Q4 orders will reach €7.27 billion, including 19 EUV low numerical aperture devices, significantly higher than the previous market expectation of over €5 billion [2] - Recent communications with buyer institutions indicate market expectations have risen to approximately 20 EUV devices and over €7 billion [2] - This will be ASML's last quarterly order data release, making this report particularly important [2] Group 2: 2026 Guidance - For 2026, Morgan Stanley anticipates ASML will provide a revenue growth guidance of around 10%, which is sufficient to meet market expectations [3] - The expected gross margin for 2026 is 52.5%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 20 basis points [3] - EUV shipment volume is expected to increase from around 40 units in 2025 to nearly 50 units in 2026, with a projected sales growth of 12-15% [3] Group 3: 2027 Performance Outlook - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the focus is shifting to 2027, where EUV demand is expected to reach 80 units, driven by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [4] - The anticipated demand is supported by significant capacity expansions in DRAM and logic chip manufacturing [4] Group 4: Capacity Constraints - A key risk identified is that ASML's EUV capacity may reach its limits in 2027, with a target of 90 low NA EUV devices and about 20 high NA devices by the end of that year [5] - Technical limitations prevent the conversion of DUV production lines to EUV, necessitating new cleanroom space for increased capacity [5] - To exceed an annual capacity of 100 units, ASML will require time and capital investment to build new facilities [5] Group 5: Revenue Projections - Total revenue for 2027 could reach €48.6 billion, with a gross margin of approximately 56%, driven by DUV sales and contributions from high NA systems [7]