Baiyin Nonferrous(SH:601212) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-27 03:39Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a rebound, driven by increased investment and positive market sentiment, particularly in copper and gold, as macroeconomic narratives shift towards a new cycle [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous mining ETF, 招商 (159690), saw a significant intraday increase of 1.59%, marking its third consecutive rise, with component stocks like 湖南黄金 hitting the daily limit [1]. - There has been a continuous inflow of funds into the sector for 12 consecutive days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. Group 2: Component Stocks and Weightings - Key component stocks of the 招商 ETF include: - 彻斯萨会 (10.01% weight) - 白银有色 (9.29% weight) - 西部黄金 (6.01% weight) - 中钨高新 (5.72% weight) - 崇金矿业 (5.52% weight) [2]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Insights - Analysts suggest a shift in macroeconomic narratives, with a focus on the strategic value of copper as a core industrial raw material, driven by factors such as US-China demand recovery and technological advancements [3]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term copper price forecast to $15,000 per ton by 2035, citing a looming supply shortage [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper and aluminum is bolstered not only by traditional sectors but also by new infrastructure projects related to renewable energy and AI data centers [3]. - Global supply constraints, particularly in key regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo, are exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [3]. Group 5: Profit Sensitivity - The profitability of companies within the 招商 ETF is highly sensitive to metal price fluctuations, with price increases translating almost entirely into profits, creating a dual effect of profit growth and valuation enhancement [3].