洋河70亿分红承诺遭遇业绩“脚踝斩”

Core Viewpoint - The dividend commitment of Yanghe Co. has collapsed faster than investors expected due to a significant decline in performance, raising alarms for high-dividend investments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - On January 23, 2026, Yanghe Co. announced a shocking profit forecast, expecting a year-on-year decline of 62.18% to 68.3% in net profit for 2025, marking the largest annual drop since its listing [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Yanghe Co.'s revenue fell by 34.26%, with an estimated net profit of only 21.16 billion to 25.24 billion yuan, indicating a severe mismatch with the previously promised 70 billion yuan dividend [4] - As of the third quarter of 2025, the company's cash on hand was 153.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year, and net cash flow from operating activities plummeted by 72% [4] Group 2: Dividend Policy Changes - In May 2025, Yanghe Co. had committed to a cash dividend plan ensuring annual dividends of no less than 70% of net profit and at least 70 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026 [2] - On January 23, 2026, the company revised its dividend policy, removing the 70 billion yuan guarantee and changing the payout ratio to at least 100% of net profit, which means actual dividends will significantly decrease due to falling profits [7] - Despite the adjustment being technically acceptable, it has led to investor dissatisfaction and concerns about the company's integrity [9] Group 3: Industry Context - Yanghe Co.'s struggles reflect broader challenges in the liquor industry, which is entering a "stock competition" era, with a shift in consumer spending from business banquets to personal and family consumption [5] - The mid-range and premium segments, where Yanghe Co. operates, are particularly vulnerable to these market changes [5] - The ongoing adjustments in the liquor industry highlight the differentiated challenges faced by companies at various price points, with mid and low-end producers being the most affected [11]