HKEX(HK:00388) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-28 08:31Core Insights - The report from JLL indicates a significant correlation between the Hang Seng Index and residential capital values in Hong Kong, with the index leading by approximately 2.2 months over the past five years [1] - Since June 2020, both the Hang Seng Index and residential capital values have shown synchronized trends, but a divergence occurred starting July 2024, where the index rebounded while residential values lagged but showed signs of slight recovery by August 2025 [1] - JLL's senior director, Li Yuanfeng, suggests that the strong performance of the stock market is expected to support the Hong Kong residential market in the near term, with anticipated interest rate cuts further boosting investor confidence [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rebounded by 27.8% from the beginning to the end of last year, while the average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is projected to reach HKD 249.8 billion by 2025, a significant increase of approximately 90% year-on-year [2] - The secondary residential market in Hong Kong is expected to see a transaction volume of 42,300 units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.9%, with total transaction value reaching HKD 299 billion, up 14.4% year-on-year [2] Historical Trends - Historical data over the past decade shows a consistent positive correlation between the average annual daily trading volume in the stock market and the number of secondary residential transactions in Hong Kong [2] - The "wealth effect" drives the synchronization between stock market activity and residential transaction volumes, as rising stock values enhance investor confidence and lead to diversified asset allocation [2] - Although there is no direct causal relationship between the stock market and the residential market, historical trends indicate a high degree of interconnection, reflecting overall macroeconomic sentiment [2]