渣打布思哲：黄金长期上行趋势下，回调可布局｜全球财经连线

Group 1 - The dollar index has fallen to a near four-year low around 96.00 due to multiple factors, leading to a strong increase in gold prices, which surpassed $5,300 per ounce, marking a historical record [1] - Standard Chartered's Chief Investment Officer, Boosher, believes that the long-term upward trend of gold is likely to continue for several years, and any price pullback should be seen as a buying opportunity. The firm maintains a 6% allocation to gold, significantly higher than the typical 2%-3% allocation by most investors [1][11] - The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth to remain above 3% in 2026, but geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties are expected to constrain growth momentum and reshape global capital flows [1] Group 2 - Boosher emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across regions and sectors to enhance portfolio resilience amid a complex macroeconomic and geopolitical environment [2] - Emerging markets, particularly India and China, are expected to be key drivers of global growth, with India projected to grow at 6.5%-7% and China slightly below 5% [4] - The technology sector, especially centered around artificial intelligence, is viewed as having sustainable growth potential, with significant capital expenditure expected to continue [5][8] Group 3 - The U.S. economy is anticipated to experience slow growth in 2026, with a 60% probability of a gradual growth trend, influenced by a soft labor market and ongoing capital expenditure in the tech sector [3] - Geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela and Greenland, are highlighted as factors that may not be fully priced into the market, potentially leading to short-term market impacts [3] - The firm is optimistic about the Chinese market, maintaining an overweight position in Chinese stocks, and sees technology as a core investment theme supported by policy [7][8] Group 4 - The dollar is expected to weaken slightly in 2026, which is generally favorable for various asset classes, including bonds, stocks, and commodities, particularly benefiting emerging markets [10] - Gold's strong performance at the beginning of the year is attributed to central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold reserves as a risk diversification strategy [11] - The firm advises investors to adopt a diversified investment strategy, including equities, gold, and potentially private equity or hedge funds, to enhance expected returns while limiting risk [12]