TNMG(SZ:000630) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-29 08:56Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant surge, driven by macroeconomic factors, strong industrial performance, and positive earnings forecasts for listed companies in the sector [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a wave of stock price increases, with notable performances including eight consecutive trading days of gains for silver and four for Hunan Gold, alongside seven stocks hitting the daily limit [1]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) reached a historical high, with a peak increase of over 4.1% and a final rise of 1.44%, indicating market resilience [1]. - The ETF recorded a trading volume of 283 million yuan, an increase of 23 million yuan compared to the previous day, and a net subscription of 117 million units, accumulating over 1.4 billion yuan in the past 20 days [1][3]. Group 2: Macro Factors - The Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts, coupled with expectations for future easing, has enhanced the appeal of precious metals as a hedge against inflation [3]. - According to CITIC Securities, as long as the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, there will be upward momentum for non-ferrous metal prices [3]. Group 3: Industrial Performance - Key metals such as gold, copper, and rare earths have seen substantial price increases, with spot gold approaching 5,600 USD/ounce, LME copper rising over 7%, and rare earth prices for core products like neodymium oxide and praseodymium oxide increasing by over 120,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is supported by positive earnings forecasts, with 21 out of 24 companies expected to report profits, indicating a strong fundamental backing for the recent price increases [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Southwest Securities anticipates a resource supercycle in the non-ferrous metal industry, with prices for metals like gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and rare earths expected to systematically rise [3]. - Huafu Securities suggests that the non-ferrous metal sector will significantly benefit from economic recovery, with its cyclical nature likely to yield excess returns amid policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3].