特斯拉转型阵痛：营收首降，马斯克买了张最贵AI门票

Core Insights - Tesla is at a crossroads, transitioning from an electric vehicle manufacturer to a "physical AI" company, highlighted by a $2 billion investment in xAI [1][5][9] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla reported total revenue of $24.901 billion, a year-over-year decline of approximately 3%, marking the first annual revenue drop in its history [1] - The automotive business revenue was $17.693 billion, down about 11% year-over-year, indicating a shrinking share of total revenue [1] - Q4 GAAP net profit fell to $840 million, a 61% drop year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit decreased by 16% to $1.761 billion [3] - For the full year, GAAP net profit was approximately $3.8 billion, down 46% year-over-year [3] - Despite revenue pressures, Q4 GAAP gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 3.86 percentage points from the previous year, reflecting initial success in cost control [3] Sales and Deliveries - Tesla delivered 418,200 vehicles in Q4, a year-over-year decline of 15.61%, and a total of 1.636 million vehicles for the year, down 8.55% [3][4] Strategic Shift - Tesla's strategy is shifting from a hardware-centric approach to a focus on "physical AI," with 2025 identified as a critical year for this transformation [3][4] - The company will cease production of the Model S and Model X to focus on the production of Optimus robots and other future products [4] Investment in AI - The $2 billion investment in xAI is seen as a significant step towards securing a future in AI, with xAI recently completing a funding round of $20 billion [5] - Tesla's CFO indicated that capital expenditures will exceed $20 billion in 2026 to support this strategic shift [5] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - Tesla's operating cash flow for 2025 was $14.7 billion, with free cash flow at $6.2 billion, providing strong support for the transition [6] - By the end of 2025, Tesla increased its cash and investments by $7.5 billion to a total of $44.1 billion, ensuring ample liquidity for future plans [7] Future Challenges - Market analysis indicates that Tesla's pre-tax profit margin for 2025 is projected at 6%, significantly lower than Toyota's [8] - The company faces pressure on profit margins from tariffs, competition from cheaper models, and policy changes, particularly in key markets like China [8] - Despite challenges, Tesla's long-term vision includes expanding its autonomous taxi service, which could significantly alter its profit model and valuation [8][9]