鸣鸣很忙(1768.HK)：多维领先 强者恒强 两万店龙头乘势而上

Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the domestic bulk snack market, operating two major brands: "零食很忙" and "赵一鸣零食," which was rebranded to "鸣鸣很忙集团" in 2023 after the merger [1] - The company's stable shareholding structure includes founders holding approximately 36% and 29%, with other investors like 好想你, 红杉, and 黑蚁 holding 6%, 7%, and 4% respectively [1] - The management team is experienced and youthful, well-suited to meet the demands of the snack industry [1] Financial Performance - As of November 30, 2025, the company is projected to have a total of 21,041 stores, with a GMV of 66.1 billion (+73%) and revenue of 46.4 billion (+75%) for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 1.81 billion (+241%) [1] Industry Insights - The leisure food and beverage industry is valued at approximately 4 trillion, with the bulk snack category around 1.8 trillion [2] - Traditional retail channels are declining, while the bulk snack segment is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of 129.7 billion by 2024 and a CAGR of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [2] - The company currently holds about 43% market share, with its closest competitor at 32%, indicating a strong competitive position [2] Competitive Advantages - The company excels in supply chain management, offering a diverse product range with precise selection and strict quality control [2] - It collaborates with quality suppliers for direct supply and customization, supported by an efficient logistics system [2] - The company leads in store expansion and operational quality, with a strong focus on training and empowering franchisees [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a rapid store opening pace and improve market penetration, with profits gradually increasing [3] - Projected adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.52 billion, 3.39 billion, and 4.37 billion respectively [3] - The initial coverage rating is "strongly recommended" [3]