（+40%），盈利能力随自有品牌占比提升及规模效应释放持续走高。 鸣鸣很忙 20260316 摘要 行业形成双寡头格局，公司 2025 年门店数达 2 万家，GMV 达 555 亿 位居休闲食品首位，远超第三名。 营收从 2022 年 43 亿增至 2024 年约 400 亿，2025 年前三季度净利 15.6 亿（+216%），规模效应驱动利润增速远超收入。 测算远期开店空间达 8.6 万家，当前行业渗透率约 58%，未来 2-3 年仍 有约 60%的增长空间。 2025 年单店营收同比下滑 4%，优于竞对万辰（-10%）；存货周转天 数由 11.6 天优化至 3.4 天，运营效率领先。 自有品牌占比仅约 5%，对标欧美 20%-40%空间巨大；公司凭借 800 亿年化 GMV 的规模优势，可有效解决代工厂起订量痛点。 预计 2026 年营收达 855 亿（+30%），归母净利润 31 亿 Q&A 请介绍一下公司的基本情况、发展历程以及当前的股权结构和财务表现？ 公司是国内规模最大的零食量贩企业。截至 2025 年第三季度，门店数量为 19,000 家，到 2025 年 11 月已接近 20,000 家出头 ...

食品饮料/休闲食品 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 量贩连锁重构线下零售，门店扩张提效贡献高增 2026 年 03 月 16 日 投资评级：增持（首次） | 日期 | 2026/3/16 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 420.40 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 461.20/370.40 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 915.79 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 907.72 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.18 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 2.16 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 8.69 | 股价走势图 -24% -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 鸣鸣很忙 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 张宇光（分析师） 陈钟山（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn chenzhongshan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040001 量贩零售高效运营，鸣鸣很忙持续成长 鸣鸣很忙是量贩零售赛道龙头企业，公司在供应链端精选优质厂商，规模化采购 优质产品，提升企业周转效率；在开店端依托高效现代的加盟商体 ...

鸣鸣很忙 20260315 摘要 量贩零食行业呈现"两超多强"格局，2024 年 CR2 达 68%，预计 2025 年鸣鸣很忙市占率将升至 38%，行业远期空间测算超 8.6 万家， 目前仍有 50%增长空间。 鸣鸣很忙单店年化 GMV 领先，2025 年闭店率控制在 2%-3%的极低水 平；通过向"折扣超市"转型，2022 年以前老店在 2025 年仍实现 1%-3%的日均销售复合增长。 单店模型从纯零食向水饮、日化等刚需品类破圈，客单价虽从 37 元降 至 31 元，但客流增长抵消了单价下滑；回本周期受竞争影响从 1.5 年 拉长至 2.5-3 年。 公司储备意向点位超 1 万个，中期门店目标突破 3.26 万家；正探索 24 小时量贩折扣便利店新店型，日销可达 1.5 万元，回本周期约 2 年，优 于传统便利店。 盈利能力随规模效应及自有品牌建设持续提升，预计 2027 年利润达 41.4 亿元；当前 2026 年估值约 23 倍，对比海外折扣龙头仍有提升空 间。 Q&A 请概述一下鸣鸣很忙这家公司的核心投资逻辑，包括其收入、盈利及估值三个 维度的分析？ 公司的核心投资逻辑在于其作为硬折扣赛道的龙头， ...

食品饮料行业周报 核心观点 食品饮料行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 食品饮料上游：行情强化，辨明主次 投资建议：先上游，再下游，优先交易地缘逻辑，供需逻辑次之。 上游主线： 1）农产品加工：相关标的中粮科技(000930，未评级)、冠农股份(600251，未评级)、安 德利(605198，未评级)、金龙鱼(300999，未评级)、祖名股份(003030，未评级)； 2）食品原料供应商：相关标的华康股份(605077，未评级)、晨光生物(300138，未评 级)、阜丰集团(00546，未评级)； 3）牧业：推荐优然牧业(09858，买入)，相关标的现代牧业(01117，未评级) 下游主线：1）白酒，推荐山西汾酒(600809，买入)、贵州茅台(600519，买入)、今世缘 (603369，买入)、舍得酒业(600702，买入)；2）餐饮供应链：推荐颐海国际(01579，买 入)、千味央厨(001215，增持)，相关标的锅圈(02517，未评级)、安井食品(603345，未 评级)、千禾味业(603027，未评级)、海天味业(603288，未评级)；3）休闲食品：相关 标的卫龙美味(09985，未评级)、鸣鸣很忙( ...

鸣鸣很忙 20260311 摘要 鸣鸣很忙与万辰形成双寡头格局，CR2 达 70.7%，公司稳态门店空间测 算达 3.5 万家，较当前 2.1 万家仍有 65%以上增长空间。 2025-2027 年预计净增门店 7,000/4,500/2,500 家，GMV 目标超 1,800 亿元，下沉市场（五线及以下）与北方空白区为核心增量来源。 店效进入修复期，2025Q3 零食很忙单店营收同比转正 （+7.1%），2026 年春节同店销售实现双位数增长，客单价下滑随价 格战趋缓而收窄。 盈利能力释放路径清晰，预计净利率目标 5%，毛利率受供应链提效及 自有品牌（目标占比 30%）驱动存在 2-5pct 提升空间。 销售费率随竞争格局稳固回落，2025 年前三季度降至 3.7%，取消一次 性开店补贴，预计未来仍有 1-1.5pct 的费用优化空间。 第二增长曲线布局加速，通过"有点馋"切入鲜食零食赛道，并率先在 越南等东南亚市场试水"有点趣"品牌，打开中长期增长天花板。 财务预测 2025-2027 年收入复合增速高，经调整归母净利润预计为 26.0/37.3/46.5 亿元，对应 2026 年 PE 为 21 倍，维 ...

鸣鸣很忙 20260309 摘要 零食量贩行业进入双强格局，全国门店空间测算达 8-10 万家，2025 年 后补贴减少，竞争趋缓且头部壁垒强化。 鸣鸣很忙（零食很忙+赵一鸣）2025 年末门店预计达 2.2 万家，GMV 超 900 亿，三线及以下城市占比 66%，下沉市场属性极强。 公司探索"省钱超市"与便利店新店型，前者面积 200 平+且增加刚需 品类，回本周期约 3-3.5 年，处于迭代优化期。 供应链效能突出：48 个仓库实现 24 小时日配，存货周转仅 11-13 天； 2025 年毛利率预计升至 10%，净利率向 4.5%-5%区间靠拢。 2025 年预计新开店 7,000 家+，2026-2027 年增速放缓但更重质量， 闭店率严格控制在 1%-2%以内，同店表现有望在 2025 年末转正。 财务预测显示 2027 年收入有望接近 1,000 亿元，基于规模效应及议价 权提升，给予 2026 年 26 倍 PE 目标估值。 Q&A 根据高德地图数据，2025 年末鸣鸣很忙与万辰集团门店数分别超过 2.2 万家 和 1.9 万家。第三名零食有鸣门店数提升至约 6,000 家，但与前两名仍存在显 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the company, "Ming Ming Hen Mang," is leading a revolution in the snack industry with a focus on high-quality and affordable products. The company has over 20,000 stores, positioning it as the top player in the snack retail sector. The report identifies three key growth drivers: expansion potential, operational efficiency, and continuous business model innovation [7][12][40]. Summary by Relevant Sections Growth Foundation: Store Expansion Potential - The company currently operates over 20,000 stores, with a calculated potential for 35,000 stores, indicating at least 65% room for expansion. The projected annual GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) could exceed 180 billion yuan, driven by expansion into high-tier cities, penetration into lower-tier markets, and filling gaps in northern regions [13][20][28]. Growth Elasticity: Efficiency Improvement - The company is transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on operational efficiency. The report anticipates that net profit margins could reach 5%, with potential improvements in gross margins of 2-5 percentage points and cost reductions of 1-1.5 percentage points [40][52]. Potential Increment: Continuous Business Model Innovation - The company is exploring new business models, including discount supermarkets, convenience stores, and fresh snack offerings. It is also making strides in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [12][40][52]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 65.08 billion yuan, 87.18 billion yuan, and 101.31 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.4%, 34.0%, and 16.2%. Net profit projections for the same years are 2.31 billion yuan, 3.38 billion yuan, and 4.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of 177.2%, 46.0%, and 31.0% [5][12]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market share in the snack retail sector, with a GMV share of 39.6% in 2024. The competitive landscape is characterized by a duopoly with another major player, "Wan Chen," which allows both companies to leverage their scale and brand recognition to capture market share from smaller competitors [14][31][36]. Operational Strategies - The company is enhancing its operational strategies through improved product selection, store format upgrades, and a robust membership system. As of Q3 2025, the registered membership reached 180 million, with a repurchase rate of 77% [48][49][51]. Supply Chain and Cost Efficiency - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency and the introduction of private label products to enhance gross margins. The company aims to optimize logistics and reduce costs through strategic partnerships and technological advancements [53][54]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the company's long-term value is significant, supported by its growth potential, operational improvements, and innovative business strategies. The initial coverage recommends a "Buy" rating based on these factors [12][40].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the hard discount model, leveraging a "vertical category + ten thousand stores" approach to drive efficiency and price competitiveness, which has allowed it to thrive in the era of value-driven consumption and new retail transformation [5][10]. - The long-term store expansion potential is significant, with an estimated theoretical store space of approximately 86,000 nationwide, based on market parameters [6][35]. - The company is expected to see substantial growth in both revenue and profit, with projected net profits of 2.29 billion, 3.27 billion, and 4.14 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 174%, 43%, and 27% respectively [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Model and Market Opportunity - The hard discount snack channel is fundamentally a business driven by traffic growth, successfully capitalizing on the rise of value consumption and the transformation of new retail [5][15]. - The market for hard discount snacks is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size of approximately 1.297 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a CAGR of about 78% from 2019 to 2024 [19][20]. 2. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is becoming clearer with the emergence of two dominant players in the hard discount sector, with the company positioned as a leader [50][56]. - The company has a significant advantage in scale, supply chain management, and digital capabilities, which are expected to continue to expand its leading position in the market [59][64]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 65.6 billion, 86.7 billion, and 100.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 67%, 32%, and 16% respectively [9][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a market share of approximately 38%, leading to a projected store count of over 32,600 by mid-term [6][65].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 湖南鳴鳴很忙商業連鎖股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年3月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01768 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 213,590,751 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 213,590,751 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 2,326,600 | | | | RMB | | 2,326,600 | | 本月底結存 | | | 215,917,351 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 215,917, ...

Macro Insights - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to set the GDP growth target for 2026 at "4.5%-5%" and maintain a CPI target around 2%[6] - Key indicators to watch include whether the PMI can return to expansion territory and if the first quarter credit can achieve a "good start"[6] Market Performance - The overall market performance in January showed a 13.1% increase, while March saw a 31.4% rise, with a year-on-year increase of 82.3%[3] - The coal sector maintained a steady performance with a 11.3% increase in both January and March, and a 25.4% increase year-on-year[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from price increases, such as chemicals, steel, and energy, as well as companies involved in AI and technology[9] - Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Nanshan Aluminum, and Yanjing Beer, among others[9] Economic Indicators - The central bank's liquidity measures have led to a slight decline in deposit rates, maintaining a stable and loose monetary environment[14] - The carbon market saw a total transaction volume of 8.8 billion tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 587.2 billion yuan[23] Sector-Specific Trends - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from new policies in Zhejiang and Guangxi, promoting solid waste treatment and recycling[22] - The tourism market is projected to perform well throughout 2026, driven by ongoing policy support and consumer demand[26] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in external environments, policy effectiveness, and geopolitical tensions[6] - The coal market faces risks from domestic production exceeding expectations and downstream demand not meeting projections[34]