国信证券：银行理财规模高增 26年向“质量提升”转型

Group 1 - The banking wealth management sector is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" by 2026, focusing on product innovation for stable funding and strategic asset expansion to address yield challenges [1] - The wealth management market is expected to grow by 11.15% in 2025, reaching a total size of 33.29 trillion yuan, driven by stable and low-volatility characteristics appealing to customers seeking better returns than deposits [1] - The average yield of wealth management products has decreased to 1.98% in 2025 due to a low-interest environment and a shortage of quality fixed-income assets, pushing firms to expand asset boundaries beyond traditional fixed income [1][2] Group 2 - Product innovation is focused on extending product durations and diversifying strategies, with the average duration of closed-end products increasing to 322-489 days and over 70.87% of products having a term longer than one year [2] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with wealth management companies dominating the market, accounting for over 92% of the total, while 59 small and medium-sized banks are expected to exit by 2025 [3] - Distribution channels, particularly those reaching lower-tier markets, are becoming crucial for growth, with leading wealth management firms leveraging brand and channel advantages to enhance market share [3] Group 3 - Collaboration between bank wealth management and public funds is deepening, with the allocation to public funds increasing to 5.1% in 2025, driven by the need for stable net values and enhanced returns through equity research advantages [4] - This "co-opetition" relationship allows bank wealth management to focus on asset allocation and customer retention while public funds provide supply advantages through tool-based products [4]