华西证券刘郁：“弱美元+低利率”预期支撑贵金属中长期走强

Core Viewpoint - The report by Liu Yu, chief economist at Huaxi Securities, indicates that the Federal Reserve's "neutral pause on interest rates" does not overshadow the long-term logic dominated by fiscal policy, with expectations of a "weak dollar + low interest rates" supporting the long-term strength of precious metals [1][1]. Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in January and upgraded its economic assessment to "robust," while excluding the risk of employment downturn [1][1]. - Powell's "defensive retreat" may reinforce expectations of diminished Federal Reserve independence [1][1]. - Under the dual constraints of "rigid fiscal spending + tariff adjustments," the probability of monetary policy serving to reduce fiscal financing costs has significantly increased [1][1]. Group 2 - The combination of a "weak dollar + low interest rates" is favorable for U.S. stocks and short-term U.S. Treasury rates, as well as for gold and other precious metals [1][1].