半个月涨超35%，中国联塑(02128.HK)踩住顺周期主线迎价值重估

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have seen a collective surge in cyclical sectors, with the building materials sector, particularly represented by China Liansu, showing remarkable performance, indicating a growing confidence in cyclical assets and a potential value reassessment [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - China Liansu's stock price increased from 4.60 HKD to 6.24 HKD between January 13 and January 29, marking a cumulative rise of over 35%, with a notable daily increase of 9.47% on January 29 and a trading volume of 2.025 billion HKD [1]. - The cyclical sector's performance reflects a broader market trend, suggesting that the current rally is not merely short-term speculation but a sign of a deeper value reassessment of core cyclical assets [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The cyclical sector is highly sensitive to economic indicators such as CPI and PPI, which have shown signs of recovery, with CPI rising 0.8% year-on-year in December, the highest in 34 months, and PPI's decline narrowing to 1.9% year-on-year [3]. - The government's continued focus on stabilizing growth through various policies is expected to support the building materials sector, with a positive outlook for CPI and PPI trends [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Support - The 2026 outlook indicates ongoing policy support for infrastructure investment, which is expected to positively impact the building materials sector's fundamentals and funding environment [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has outlined a comprehensive approach to promote reasonable price recovery, which is crucial for the profitability of building materials companies [3]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - China Liansu is positioned as a core asset within the cyclical sector, benefiting from structural opportunities in urbanization and infrastructure development [6][7]. - The company is actively expanding its export capabilities, with overseas revenue reaching 1.055 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 29.5% increase year-on-year, highlighting its growing international market presence [9]. - China Liansu's comprehensive product matrix in pipeline construction materials positions it well to capitalize on increasing domestic consumption driven by government policies [10]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - Institutional investors are optimistic about the cyclical sector, identifying building materials as a core investment opportunity, with China Liansu expected to benefit from robust demand and a favorable policy environment [12]. - The company's valuation remains attractive, with a PE ratio of 10.47 as of January 29, and a leading ROE of 4.377% in the building materials industry, indicating potential for valuation recovery as the sector enters a cyclical upturn [12].