Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that higher activity spending is expected to re-emerge for Sands China (01928) over the next four years (2026 to 2029), with confidence that the EBITDA margin can reach a low 30% level, while maintaining a "Buy" rating but lowering the target price from HKD 24.25 to HKD 23 [1] - Sands China's Q4 performance for the previous year was largely in line with expectations, with net revenue increasing by 16% year-on-year to USD 2.058 billion (up 8% quarter-on-quarter), and property EBITDA rising by 6% year-on-year to USD 608 million (up 1% quarter-on-quarter), which was slightly below the market consensus of USD 628 million by 3% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by approximately 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to about 28.9% [1] Group 2 - The report cites management comments from Sands China during an analysis call, indicating that significant spending on events, particularly the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games, contributed to the EBITDA margin decline of 2.7 percentage points (29.5% in Q4 2025; 32.2% in Q4 2024) [2] - The report suggests that despite the decline in EBITDA margin, Sands China has performed well in controlling operating expenses [2] - Management also noted a year-on-year decrease in the win rate by approximately 140 basis points, with promotional efforts stabilizing and plans for further optimization in 2026 [2]
花旗：下调金沙中国目标价至23港元 上季物业EBITDA低市场预期