机构：中金公司 研究员：吴昇勇/王嘉钰/侯利维 3Q25 业绩符合市场一致预期 金沙中国公布3Q25 业绩：净收入为19.06 亿美元，同比上升8%，环比上升6%，恢复至3Q19 的90%，经 调整物业EBITDA为6.01 亿美元，同比上升3%，环比上升6%，恢复至3Q19 的80%，与5.96 亿美元的彭 博一致预期基本一致。我们将金沙中国的表现归因于：1）受到返点激励政策的推动，博彩收入市场份 额从2Q25 的22.6%提升至3Q25 的23.7%；2）伦敦人名汇放量。 发展趋势 1）管理层重申，基于澳门总博彩收入全年可达330-340 亿美元的假设，公司的短期EBITDA 目标维持在 全年27-28 亿美元（即每季度6.75 亿美元）； 2）我们认为，尽管高端中场板块市场竞争激烈，金沙中国仍致力于保持竞争力以实现其短期EBITDA 目标，并将同步调整旗下各物业的再投资计划及销售团队资源配置； 3）随着超高端贵宾客户到访量增加及流动性增长，金沙中国计划重新进军中介贵宾业务，但我们预计 中场业务仍将贡献绝大部分收益； 4）我们发现，3Q25 当日往返旅客持续带动强劲客流，普通中场增速表现仍落后于高端中场业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 24.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's total Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for Q3 2025 reached USD 1.837 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%, recovering to 90% of the levels seen in Q3 2019, which is above the industry average of 88% [6][9]. - The report highlights that while the overall GGR recovery is strong, the recovery in VIP and mass market segments is lagging behind the industry, with VIP GGR at USD 148 million, recovering only to 34% of 2019 levels compared to the industry average of 54% [7]. - The company is expected to increase its dividend to HKD 0.50 in 2025, compared to HKD 0.25 in 2024, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [6][9]. Financial Performance - Projected revenue for the company is expected to grow from HKD 55.224 billion in 2024 to HKD 66.820 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.72% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from HKD 8.340 billion in 2024 to HKD 11.878 billion in 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [5]. - The report anticipates an increase in the company's EBITDA from USD 6.01 billion in Q3 2025, which is 80% of the levels seen in Q3 2019, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency [8]. Market Dynamics - The company is leveraging innovative gaming solutions such as smart gaming tables and side betting to enhance market share, particularly in the mass market segment [6][7]. - The report notes that the Londoner property has maintained its attractiveness, with a year-on-year GGR increase, and is expected to benefit from upcoming non-gaming events, including concerts and sports events, which could drive additional foot traffic [8][9]. - The report suggests that the overall gaming sector in Macau is likely to continue its upward trend in the second half of 2025, supported by favorable policies and increased consumer spending [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sands China [2][6] Core Insights - The company achieved net revenue of USD 1.91 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [3][10] - Adjusted property EBITDA reached USD 601 million, up 2.7% year-on-year, with an adjusted property EBITDA margin of 31.5% [3][13] - The market share of Sands China increased to 23.7% in Q3 2025, up from 22.7% in Q2 2025 [5][14] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are USD 7,395 million, USD 7,907 million, and USD 8,325 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 6.9%, and 5.3% respectively [6][15] - Gaming gross revenue is expected to be USD 7,034 million, USD 7,471 million, and USD 7,864 million for the same period, with growth rates of 4.2%, 6.2%, and 5.3% [6][15] - Adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted at USD 2,327 million, USD 2,601 million, and USD 2,784 million, with margins of 31.5%, 32.9%, and 33.4% [6][15] Property Performance Breakdown - The performance of individual properties varied, with The Londoner showing a net revenue increase of 49% year-on-year, while The Venetian and The Parisian experienced declines [3][11] - The net revenue contributions from properties were as follows: The Venetian and The Londoner at USD 690 million each, The Parisian at USD 220 million, Plaza at USD 210 million, and Sands at USD 70 million [3][11] Market Share and Competitive Position - Sands China continues to hold the leading market share in Macau, benefiting from its large-scale casinos and convention centers [6][15] - The company’s gaming gross revenue reached USD 1.84 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, although this growth was below the industry average of 12.5% [4][12]

该行认为金沙中国业绩反映受惠于公司促销策略，市场占有率由2025年第二季的22.6%提升至第三季的 23.7%；伦敦人度假村逐步提升营运规模。 金沙中国公布2025年第三季业绩，净收益达19.06亿美元，同比增长8%，按季增长6%，恢复至2019年第 三季度水平的90%；经调整物业EBITDA为6.01亿美元，同比增长3%、按季增长6%，恢复至2019年第三 季度水平的80%，符合市场预期的5.96亿美元。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持对金沙中国(01928) 2025年及2026年经调整EBITDA的预测， 维持"跑赢行业"评级及23.8元目标价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Sands China (01928) showed robust performance in Q3, with a significant reversal in EBITDA and market share decline observed earlier this year [1] Financial Performance - EBITDA recorded at $601 million, with adjusted VIP win rate leading to $599 million, representing a 7% quarter-on-quarter growth [1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin slightly improved to 31.5% [1] Management Outlook - The management of Sands China expresses a positive attitude and increased confidence in further growth of market share in the gaming sector [1] Analyst Rating - Goldman Sachs reiterates a "Buy" rating for Sands China, raising the target price from HKD 23.6 to HKD 24.2, and continues to list it as a preferred stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Sands China (01928) showed robust performance in Q3, with a significant reversal from the decline seen earlier this year [1] Financial Performance - EBITDA recorded at $601 million, with adjusted VIP win rate leading to an adjusted EBITDA of $599 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA margin slightly improved to 31.5% [1] Market Outlook - Management's positive attitude indicates increased confidence in further growth of market share in the gaming sector [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on the company, raising the target price from HKD 23.6 to HKD 24.2 [1] - Sands China continues to be listed as a preferred stock by Goldman Sachs [1]

Market share gain of mass gaming. Mass GGR grew 12% YoY, with premium mass GGR up 6% YoY and base mass up 19% YoY, recovering to 111% and 99% of 2019 levels respectively. The company's mass gaming market share improved 1.4ppts QoQ to 25.4%, mainly thanks to the more aggressive customer reinvestment programs since mid-2Q25. 机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：贾梦迪 Maintain Buy. We like the resilience nature of the gaming business, and Sands China's further market share gain potential. We maintain target price of HK$22.5, and with ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Yuewen Group (00772) rose over 4% as the company launched four major initiatives to develop its comic-drama ecosystem and actively promote IP commercialization [1] - ASMPT (00522) increased by over 7% after Morgan Stanley reported a recovery in mainstream semiconductor demand and continuous growth in the advanced packaging market, estimating that ASMPT's third-quarter order shipment ratio will remain above 1 [1] - Sands China (01928) rose over 1% as Citigroup expects its EBITDA recovery to continue in Q4 this year and into next year [1] - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) saw an increase of over 5% due to significant improvement in profitability and the strategic importance of rare earth resources [1] - AVIC Aircraft (02357) rose over 4% as its Zihuo future aircraft concept model was showcased at the Airshow, with business spanning the aviation industry chain [1] - Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by over 2% with a reported 11% year-on-year growth in total copper production in Q3, and institutions are optimistic about the performance of the Las Bambas mine [1] - Semiconductor stocks led the gains, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) up over 10%, Shanghai Fudan (01385) up over 4%, SMIC (00981) up over 5%, and Jingmen Semiconductor (02878) up over 6%. Galaxy Securities noted that semiconductor equipment is a critical support sector in the tech war [1] - Horizon Robotics-W (09660) rose over 3% as it gained favor from domestic and international car manufacturers, with HSD already designated by multiple automakers [1][2] Group 2: US Stocks - Tesla (TSLA.US) rose 2.28% with Q3 2025 revenue at $28.095 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations [3] - IBM (IBM.US) fell 0.87% as its Q3 hybrid cloud division revenue growth slowed and fell short of expectations [3] - Micron Technology (MU.US) increased by 4.15% as it officially samples the 192GB SOCAMM2 to customers, actively expanding low-power memory applications in AI data centers [3] - NIO (NIO.US) rose 0.73% with over 10,000 deliveries last week, including a record high of over 3,500 for the L90 model [3] - Hesai (HSAI.US) increased by 3.95% after announcing a strategic partnership with Guanghetong to jointly release a multi-modal perception and control solution based on lidar and dual-vision technology [3] - Baidu (BIDU.US) rose 2.95% as it partnered with Swiss Post's subsidiary PostBus to launch autonomous taxi road tests in Switzerland in December [3] - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) increased by 3.65% after CICC raised its target price by 6% to $230, maintaining an "outperform" rating [3] - Alibaba (BABA.US) rose 3.64% as its Quark AI glasses are set to launch for pre-sale on the 24th [4] - Southwest Airlines (LUV.US) fell 6.25% despite a 1.1% year-on-year revenue increase to $6.95 billion in Q3, exceeding market expectations [4] - Intel (INTC.US) rose 3.36% with Q3 revenue at $13.65 billion, a 2.8% year-on-year increase [5]

Group 1 - Sands China (01928.HK) has seen an increase of over 3%, currently up by 3.07% at HKD 19.82 [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 138 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sands China (01928) has shown a strong performance with a stock increase of 3.07%, reaching HKD 19.82, driven by positive quarterly results from its parent company, Las Vegas Sands Corp. [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter ending September, Sands China reported a net revenue increase of 7.5% year-on-year to USD 1.9 billion [1] - The net income rose by 1.5% to USD 272 million [1] - Adjusted property EBITDA increased by 2.7% to USD 601 million [1] Market Position and Strategy - Citi noted that Sands China has started the 2025 third quarter earnings season with solid performance, achieving property EBITDA of USD 601 million, marking a 3% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase, the first time surpassing USD 600 million since Q1 2024 [1] - The company's new customer rebate strategy has begun to show results, with an estimated market share increase of 1 percentage point to 23.4% compared to the previous quarter [1] - Encouragingly, the improvement in EBITDA occurred with only a slight decline in profit margins [1] Analyst Outlook - Citi continues to favor Sands China as a top pick, anticipating that the EBITDA recovery will persist into Q4 of this year and into next year [1]