Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains its EBITDA forecasts for Sands China (01928) for 2026 and 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to 9 times the 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA. The firm maintains an outperform rating and a target price of HKD 23.80, indicating a 26% upside from the current stock price [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Sands China reported a net revenue of USD 2.058 billion for 4Q25, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 92% of 4Q19 levels. Adjusted property EBITDA was USD 608 million, up 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter, but fell short of the consensus estimate of USD 632 million [2]. Group 2: Market Share and Costs - The company achieved a higher gaming revenue market share of 24.5% in 4Q25, up from 23.7% in 3Q25, driven by membership programs and growth in other Asian customer segments. However, EBITDA was impacted by rising operational costs, including expenses related to events like the NBA China Games and increased employee compensation due to higher gaming table capacity [3]. - The high-end segment (VIP and premium mass) is expected to continue leading industry growth, with the marketing rebate environment anticipated to stabilize in 2026, potentially positively impacting EBITDA margins. The deployment of side-bet products is ongoing, but participation from Macau customers has been below expectations, which may limit structural growth in win rates [3]. - Despite property foot traffic exceeding 2019 levels, the premium mass segment has recovered to 117% of 4Q19 levels, showing a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase, while the mass market segment has only recovered to 95% of 4Q19 levels, indicating a decline in per capita spending in the mass market [3].
中金：维持金沙中国跑赢行业评级 目标价23.80港元