油价大反转来了？巴克莱："过剩危机"是假象，原油多年牛市即将开启！

Core Viewpoint - Barclays presents a contrarian view against the prevailing market sentiment of an impending oil surplus, arguing that the concerns over supply excess are overstated and that significant changes will occur post-2026 [1][11]. Group 1: Misjudgment of the Market - The narrative of an oil surplus is fundamentally flawed, as the market has relied on IEA and EIA forecasts predicting a surplus of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day by 2026 [2]. - Barclays emphasizes that if a surplus truly existed, it would be reflected in inventory levels, which is not the case [3][4]. - Current data shows that the anticipated surplus of 4 million barrels per day has not materialized, with commercial inventories and floating storage significantly below model predictions [4][10]. Group 2: Underestimated Demand - The issue lies not in a "disappearing oil" scenario but in the systematic underestimation of actual demand levels, with discrepancies in demand forecasts exceeding 2 million barrels per day among different institutions [7]. - Even during the seasonally weak winter months, global refining margins remain robust, indicating ongoing operational incentives for refineries [9]. Group 3: Future Supply Dynamics - Barclays predicts that the real turning point for oil supply will occur after the non-OPEC supply paradigm shifts, particularly post-2026 [11]. - The assumption that U.S. shale oil production will quickly fill any gaps is becoming less reliable, with forecasts indicating that U.S. production will plateau around 13.6 million barrels per day by 2025 and may decline slightly by 2027 [12]. - New international projects, while numerous, will not ramp up production as quickly as the market expects, and will primarily serve to offset natural declines rather than create net new supply [12]. Group 4: Market Implications - If demand continues while spare capacity diminishes, oil prices will need to rise to find equilibrium [14]. - The shift in supply dynamics suggests a transition from a price-driven cycle to one constrained by supply, with AI efficiencies not being sufficient to suppress prices but rather to meet existing demand [15]. - Barclays asserts that the current phase is not the end of the cycle but rather a "pricing undervaluation stage" within a long-term upward cycle, with energy stocks already outperforming despite oil prices not fully breaking through [16][17].