AIA(HK:01299) Ge Long Hui·2026-01-30 07:00Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that AIA's valuation is supported by stable compound growth in new business value, embedded value, and post-tax operating profit [1] Group 1: Growth Indicators - AIA's premium income growth has slowed, but embedded value growth has recovered and is on an upward trend [1] - From 2011 to 2019, the average annual growth of new business value was 24%, compared to the estimated average growth of about 15% from 2023 to 2028 [1] - The expected operating return on embedded value is projected to reach 15% by 2025, matching the fastest growth momentum seen in the fiscal years 2018 to 2019 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - AIA is repurchasing free surplus, with a return on equity significantly higher than historical levels, expected to reach 17% from 2023 to 2028 [1] - Despite investor concerns regarding the increasing proportion of savings-type products in the mainland and Hong Kong markets, the valuation reflects these concerns, making the current risk-reward profile attractive [1] Group 3: Valuation and Ratings - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for AIA's new business value for 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 4% [1] - The target price for AIA has been increased from HKD 85 to HKD 96, with a reiterated "Buy" rating [1]