UBS(US:UBS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-30 11:42Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - If Kevin Warsh is nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to steepen, driven by short-term yields declining faster than long-term yields [1] - Conversely, if Rick Rieder from BlackRock is nominated, the yield curve may flatten as long-term yields decrease more rapidly than short-term yields [1] - Regardless of the nomination outcome, market reactions are anticipated to be temporary as the new chair will need to persuade other committee members [1] Group 2: Emerging Markets Performance - Developed economies are facing fiscal and policy risks, while emerging markets are experiencing strong capital inflows, continuing the trend from late 2025 [2] - Emerging market equities are projected to achieve their best monthly performance since November 2022, with UBS Global Wealth Management forecasting further gains [2] - In January, 15 out of 22 emerging market currencies in the MSCI index appreciated, and the Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Government Bond Index has returned approximately 2% this year [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB Concerns - Analysts from Deutsche Bank express concerns about the European Central Bank's apprehension regarding the appreciation of the euro, which could further lower inflation [2] - ECB officials are wary of the negative effects of a strong euro and are reluctant to allow significant appreciation [2] Group 4: Gold and Precious Metals Market - Analysts indicate that gold prices surged in January, with a peak increase of nearly $1,300 per ounce, but signs of a market top are emerging [3] - As the market anticipates the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, gold prices are under pressure, with a potential further decline expected [3] - The recent sharp drop in precious metals is speculated to trigger deeper corrections, as the market lacks clear catalysts for such a rapid decline [3] Group 5: Japan's Economic Forecast - Analysts from ING predict a moderate economic recovery in Japan by Q4 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, reversing a previous contraction [4] - Economic activity in Japan has shown signs of slowing, with retail sales in December falling more than expected and manufacturing activity likely remaining subdued [4]