Lilly(US:LLY) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-31 03:29Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of weight loss medications in the U.S. Medicare reimbursement system is expected to significantly boost the market for Eli Lilly's experimental oral weight loss drug, orforglipron, according to CEO Dave Ricks [1]. Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. Medicare system is anticipated to cover orforglipron upon its launch, which Ricks believes will "change the market game" [1]. - Currently, many patients are paying out-of-pocket for Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 oral weight loss drug, which has seen strong market response despite incomplete Medicare coverage [1]. - Ricks noted that early users of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy are primarily first-time users of GLP-1 treatments, indicating an expanding market reach [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Accessibility - The reimbursement coverage from Medicare is expected to lower the prices of these oral medications, with eligible patients only needing to pay $50 per month for approved GLP-1 drugs [2]. - Ricks stated that the new policy will significantly open up market space, with an estimated 20 to 30 million Medicare beneficiaries potentially qualifying for GLP-1 therapy [3]. - The drug pricing agreement reached last year mandates that pharmaceutical companies lower drug prices and offer existing medications at the lowest overseas prices to Medicaid patients [3]. Group 3: Sales Growth and Future Plans - Ricks indicated that sales growth for Eli Lilly's drugs is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, contingent on patient acceptance and market share [4]. - The company plans to disclose the financial impact of the pricing agreement during its upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report and 2026 guidance [4]. - Eli Lilly is the first company to sell weight loss drugs directly to patients through its platform, LillyDirect, and supports the expansion of this model to other drug categories via the TrumpRx platform [4].